UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Stockholm, Sweden
28 May 2017
Middleweight
VS
76%
Hermansson
24%
Nicholson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hermansson
Hermansson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nicholson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Hermansson throws more volume but Nicholson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicholson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hermansson
Nicholson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
37
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hermansson
Nicholson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
16.7
48.1
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
60
97
Momentum Score
22
Hermansson
Nicholson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Hermansson
Nicholson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hermansson
Nicholson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/34 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Hermansson
Nicholson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Hermansson
Nicholson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hermansson
Nicholson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HermanssonNicholson
Strike Zones
Hermansson
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNicholson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hermansson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicholson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nicholson targets the body (100% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hermansson
RND
Nicholson
0/0R00/0
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Nicholson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Nicholson · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Devin ClarkRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R2
Misha CirkunovRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02