UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1 Aug 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Cavalcante
42%
Cummins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:45
RC
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
12 – 7
6'1"74" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 17
PC
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cavalcante

This is a genuine toss-up — Cavalcante at 58% vs Cummins at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Cavalcante has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cavalcante's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cavalcante
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+76"
46
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cavalcante
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
12.7
44.0
Performance Avg
39.0
60
Quality of Victory
34
39
Momentum Score
45
Cavalcante
Cummins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
54%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
11
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground10
Cavalcante
Cummins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cavalcante
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Cavalcante
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Cavalcante
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cavalcante
Cummins
Striking10.0 / 4.3Volume0.4 / 6.3Grappling0.0 / 1.6Wrestling0.0 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Cavalcante
Strike Zones
Cummins
Cavalcante
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Cummins
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cavalcante targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cavalcante absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cavalcante
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0

Cavalcante · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0101.5L5.0W5.5L4.0L6.1L2013-062013-112014-062015-082016-02
WinLossTrend

Cummins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L5.5W3.1L1.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L1.5L1.7L2014-022015-042017-042019-05
WinLossTrend

Cavalcante · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · KO · R3
Patrick CumminsRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · KO · R1
Igor PokrajacRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Thiago SilvaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

Cummins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04

News & Media

Rafael Cavalcante · Patrick Cummins
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