UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Welterweight
VS
58%
Luque
42%
Holland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 58% vs Holland at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
47.0
57.2
Performance Avg
49.3
50
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
51
Luque
Holland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Luque
Holland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
7
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Luque
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Luque
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
69%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
7
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
LuqueHolland
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHolland
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (50% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03