UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2017
Middleweight
VS
32%
Leites
68%
Tavares
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Leites has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Leites has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Leites's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Leites
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
74"
44
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Leites
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
35.6
48.8
Performance Avg
40.1
40
Quality of Victory
29
35
Momentum Score
49
Leites
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
19
0
Body
0
2
Leg
9
RangeRange
14Distance23
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Leites
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Leites
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/37 fights
Chin rating based on
29/34 fights
Leites
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
49
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Leites
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
13%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
14
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Leites
Tavares
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
LeitesTavares
Strike Zones
Leites
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTavares
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Leites targets the head (86% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (68% of attacks) — Leites absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Leites
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Leites · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Leites · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Jack HermanssonRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10