UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Welterweight
VS
49%
Cerrone
51%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:33
DC
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36 – 17
6'1"73" reachOrthodox43 yrs6-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 28
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 49% vs Oliveira at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cerrone
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
+76"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
29.9
53.0
Performance Avg
46.5
47
Quality of Victory
43
63
Momentum Score
100
Cerrone
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
3
Body
6
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance3
3Clinch11
0Ground0
Cerrone
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
22/34 fights
Cerrone
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Cerrone
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
64%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cerrone
Oliveira
Striking5.6 / 4.7Volume3.7 / 4.0Grappling2.8 / 3.0Wrestling2.0 / 2.1Submission2.6 / 2.7Pressure6.7 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Cerrone
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Cerrone
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD6BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
4HEAD6BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the body (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the body (43% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cerrone
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0

Cerrone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W6.4W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.7L5.2W5.0W5.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W1.7L5.0W5.5W5.2W5.9W2.8L5.8L1.5L5.0W6.6L5.0W6.1W4.5W5.3L3.1L3.5L5.5L1.5L3.2L2011-022013-112016-062019-052022-07
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

News & Media

Donald Cerrone · Alex Oliveira
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