UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Columbus, USA
7 Mar 2009
Lightweight
VS
60%
Nelson
40%
Riley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:44
SN
Shane Nelson
"Sugar"
16 – 7
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
AR
Aaron Riley
30 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'8"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Riley has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Riley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Riley has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nelson
Riley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Riley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
11.4
45.5
Performance Avg
28.3
43
Quality of Victory
25
44
Momentum Score
45
Nelson
Riley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
1.3
26%
Strike Accuracy
32%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Nelson
Riley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Riley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/23 fights
Chin rating based on
9/44 fights
Nelson
Riley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
44
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Nelson
Riley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Riley
Striking6.0 / 0.7Volume5.0 / 8.7Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Nelson
Strike Zones
Riley
Nelson
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Riley
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Riley targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Riley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L2008-122009-032009-082009-12
WinLossTrend

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.8L4.0L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.8L4.5W4.5L5.5L2002-052009-032010-052013-07
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · KO · R1
Aaron RileyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12

Riley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08

News & Media

Shane Nelson · Aaron Riley
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