UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Welterweight
VS
50%
Burkman
50%
Ottow
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JB
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
28 – 16
5'10"72" reachOrthodox46 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
ZO
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burkman

This is a genuine toss-up — Burkman at 50% vs Ottow at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ottow throws more volume but Burkman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burkman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ottow has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burkman
Ottow
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
46
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burkman
Ottow
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
14.1
34.7
Performance Avg
40.2
36
Quality of Victory
34
80
Momentum Score
53
Burkman
Ottow
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
43%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
11
3
Body
3
10
Leg
7
RangeRange
12Distance19
5Clinch1
0Ground1
Burkman
Ottow
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burkman
Ottow
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/44 fights
Chin rating based on
8/24 fights
Burkman
Ottow
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
53
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Burkman
Ottow
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burkman
Ottow
Striking2.3 / 3.5Volume6.0 / 7.0Grappling2.9 / 1.8Wrestling2.0 / 1.3Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Burkman
Strike Zones
Ottow
Burkman
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY10LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY7LEGS21 absorbed
Ottow
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY7LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY10LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burkman targets the legs (59% of attacks) — Ottow absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Ottow targets the head (52% of attacks) — Burkman absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burkman
RND
Ottow
0/0R00/0

Burkman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.8L5.5L4.0L4.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L2.7L1.5L2005-112007-052015-052017-032018-02
WinLossTrend

Ottow · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W2.3L5.0W2.8L4.5W1.5L2016-102017-062018-032018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Burkman · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Zak OttowRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05

Ottow · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Sage NorthcuttRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Li JingliangRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11

News & Media

Joshua Burkman · Zak Ottow
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