UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
Orlando, USA
19 Apr 2014
Welterweight
VS
54%
Alves
46%
Baczynski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
SB
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
20 – 14
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 54% vs Baczynski at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Baczynski has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Baczynski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+75"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Baczynski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
14.3
47.3
Performance Avg
43.3
42
Quality of Victory
42
63
Momentum Score
33
Alves
Baczynski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
31%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
20
12
Body
5
14
Leg
5
RangeRange
37Distance29
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Alves
Baczynski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Baczynski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
11/34 fights
Alves
Baczynski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Alves
Baczynski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
60%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Baczynski
Striking5.8 / 2.9Volume4.3 / 4.1Grappling1.5 / 4.2Wrestling1.0 / 2.9Submission0.7 / 4.0Pressure5.4 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Alves
Strike Zones
Baczynski
Alves
Attacking
15HEAD12BODY14LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD5BODY5LEGS30 absorbed
Baczynski
Attacking
20HEAD5BODY5LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD12BODY14LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (37% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 37% of strikes there
🎯Baczynski targets the head (67% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Baczynski
0/0R00/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Baczynski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L5.2W5.6W4.5W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.1W5.5L1.5L2.6L2010-062012-062013-072014-082015-04
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Baczynski · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Leon EdwardsRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Brian MelanconRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Seth Baczynski
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