UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Las Vegas, USA
27 Mar 2021
Featherweight
VS
54%
Young
46%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Young
This is a genuine toss-up — Young at 54% vs Morales at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Young has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Young has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Young's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Young
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Young
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
25.6
35.4
Performance Avg
32.1
40
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
45
Young
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
27
7
Body
1
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
18Distance29
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Young
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Young
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Young
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Young
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Young
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
YoungMorales
Strike Zones
Young
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedMorales
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Young targets the head (50% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (79% of attacks) — Young absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Young
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Young · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Young · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel MirandaRating 2Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Blake BilderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Omar MoralesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Ludovit KleinRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Austin ArnettRating 4.5Decision
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Uros MedicRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Sub · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2Submission
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Shane YoungRating 4.5Decision
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10