UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Bantamweight
VS
23%
Mizugaki
77%
Sterling
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Mizugaki throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mizugaki
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+71"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
54.2
40.1
Performance Avg
54.2
29
Quality of Victory
38
98
Momentum Score
71
Mizugaki
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
38%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Mizugaki
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Mizugaki
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Mizugaki
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mizugaki
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
MizugakiSterling
Strike Zones
Mizugaki
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSterling
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (67% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mizugaki
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
Mizugaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08