UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Boston, USA
17 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
90%
Wade
10%
Baghdad
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:30
CW
Chris Wade
12 – 3
5'10"70" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
MB
Mehdi Baghdad
"The Sultan"
11 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox6'1"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Wade

Wade is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wade has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.

Striking split: Baghdad throws more volume but Wade connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Wade
Baghdad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wade
Baghdad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
2.4
50.5
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
88
Momentum Score
0
Wade
Baghdad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
38%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground1
Wade
Baghdad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wade
Baghdad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Wade
Baghdad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Wade
Baghdad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wade
Baghdad
Striking1.4 / 0.0Volume6.2 / 0.0Grappling4.6 / 0.0Wrestling3.3 / 0.0Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Wade
Strike Zones
Baghdad
Wade
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Baghdad
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wade targets the head (80% of attacks) — Baghdad absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Baghdad targets the head (100% of attacks) — Wade absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wade
RND
Baghdad
0/0R00/0

Wade · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W4.5W4.7W5.0W5.5L7.5L4.5W2014-082015-062016-052017-07
WinLossTrend

Baghdad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L5.5L2016-012016-07
WinLossTrend

Wade · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Frankie PerezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Mehdi BaghdadRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Christos GiagosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06

Baghdad · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Sub · R1
Chris WadeRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01

News & Media

Chris Wade · Mehdi Baghdad
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