METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Lightweight
VS
79%
Alvarez
21%
Yakovlev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:00
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
6'3"77" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 59
AY
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'3"
CFR 15
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:00
def. Alexander Yakovlev · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvarez
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Alvarez is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Alvarez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Yakovlev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezYakovlev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
74"
33+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.3
15.4
57.2
Performance Avg
40.2
51
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
36
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.3
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
8.1
Style: Pressure
5.7
2.3
Style: Volume
3.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
68
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/34 fights
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvarez
Yakovlev
Striking6.3 / 4.0Volume2.3 / 3.3Grappling3.3 / 3.5Wrestling2.3 / 2.4Submission3.8 / 3.3Pressure8.1 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Alvarez
Strike Zones
Yakovlev
Alvarez
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Yakovlev
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Yakovlev targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvarez
RND
Yakovlev
0/0R00/0

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chidi Njokuani
Decision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav Amosov
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente Luque
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar Klose
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves Brener
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

Yakovlev · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Joel Alvarez
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt Roberts
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · Sub · R2
Alex Da Silva
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Zak Cummings
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Kamaru Usman
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07

News & Media

Joel Alvarez · Alexander Yakovlev
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