UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Lightweight
VS
80%
Alvarez
20%
Yakovlev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:00
AY
CFR 15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvarez
Alvarez is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Yakovlev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
74"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.9
15.4
59.7
Performance Avg
40.2
51
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
36
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.8
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
68
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/34 fights
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Yakovlev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
AlvarezYakovlev
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedYakovlev
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Yakovlev targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Yakovlev
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Yakovlev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5Submission
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Yakovlev · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt RobertsRating 5.7Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.2Submission
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L · Sub · R2
Zak CummingsRating 3.1Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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