UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Bantamweight
VS
59%
Assuncao
41%
Moraes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RA
Raphael Assuncao
28 – 10
5'5"66" reachOrthodox43 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
MM
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Assuncao

This is a genuine toss-up — Assuncao at 59% vs Moraes at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Moraes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Assuncao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Assuncao's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moraes has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Assuncao
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
66"
Reach
+67"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Assuncao
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.4
21.5
44.2
Performance Avg
47.3
32
Quality of Victory
49
61
Momentum Score
20
Assuncao
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
3
Body
4
8
Leg
8
RangeRange
18Distance19
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Assuncao
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Assuncao
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/38 fights
Chin rating based on
11/33 fights
Assuncao
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Assuncao
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Assuncao
Moraes
Striking2.9 / 4.9Volume7.3 / 4.1Grappling2.5 / 2.6Wrestling1.7 / 1.8Submission0.8 / 2.0Pressure3.6 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Assuncao
Strike Zones
Moraes
Assuncao
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY8LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY8LEGS19 absorbed
Moraes
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY8LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY8LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Assuncao targets the head (42% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the legs (42% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Assuncao
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0

Assuncao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.2W4.6W5.0W4.5W5.6L5.5W4.5W5.5W5.7W1.5L7.0L3.8L3.4L5.4W4.8L2011-032013-102017-062020-062023-03
WinLossTrend

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L4.5W6.0W5.0W5.0W4.2L5.0W3.6L2.7L4.0L2.8L2017-062018-062019-122021-092022-03
WinLossTrend

Assuncao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Ricky SimonRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12

News & Media

Raphael Assuncao · Marlon Moraes
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