UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Mar 2015
Lightweight
VS
64%
Trinaldo
36%
Arreola
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AA
CFR 18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Trinaldo
Trinaldo holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Arreola has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Arreola has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Trinaldo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Trinaldo's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Trinaldo
Arreola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
47
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Trinaldo
Arreola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
17.7
48.6
Performance Avg
42.4
35
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
36
Trinaldo
Arreola
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
9
3
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
13Distance16
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Trinaldo
Arreola
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Trinaldo
Arreola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/37 fights
Chin rating based on
4/34 fights
Trinaldo
Arreola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Trinaldo
Arreola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Trinaldo
Arreola
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
TrinaldoArreola
Strike Zones
Trinaldo
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedArreola
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Trinaldo targets the head (79% of attacks) — Arreola absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Arreola targets the head (56% of attacks) — Trinaldo absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Trinaldo
RND
Arreola
0/0R00/0
Trinaldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Arreola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Trinaldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny RobertsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · KO · R3
Jai HerbertRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Arreola · Last 4
L · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 5.8UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
W · Sub · R1
Yves EdwardsRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Tiago dos Santos e SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07