UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Flyweight
VS
49%
Maksum
51%
Raposo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Azat
Azat Maksum
"Qazaq"
15 – 3
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw31 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Mitch
Mitch Raposo
10 – 3
Well-Rounded27 yrsSwitch64" reach5'5"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Raposo

This is a genuine toss-up — Maksum at 49% vs Raposo at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Maksum throws more volume but Raposo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Maksum
Raposo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
64"
31
Age
+27
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Maksum
Raposo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.4
31.1
25.0
Performance Avg
28.3
25
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
27
Maksum
Raposo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.5
27%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Maksum
Raposo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maksum
Raposo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Maksum
Raposo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
27
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Maksum
Raposo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maksum
Raposo
Striking0.5 / 0.7Volume8.5 / 8.7Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Maksum
Strike Zones
Raposo
Maksum
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Raposo
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maksum targets the head (100% of attacks) — Raposo absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Raposo targets the head (89% of attacks) — Maksum absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maksum
RND
Raposo
0/0R00/0

Maksum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.7W6.4L6.6L5.5L2023-072024-022025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Raposo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0107.0L6.1L4.5W2024-062025-042025-10
WinLossTrend

Maksum · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Mitch RaposoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07

Raposo · Last 4

Upcoming
Allan Nascimento
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Azat MaksumRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Andre LimaRating 7
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Azat Maksum · Mitch Raposo
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