METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Saskatoon, Canada
23 Aug 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
95%
Cirkunov
5%
Jolly
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:45
★ Official Result
Misha CirkunovwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:45
def. Daniel Jolly · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cirkunov
→
Actual result
Cirkunov wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Cirkunov is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cirkunov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.
Risk flags
Cirkunov's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jolly has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CirkunovJolly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cirkunov
Jolly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cirkunov
Jolly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.3
1.6
50.1
Performance Avg
0.0
53
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Cirkunov
Jolly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.4
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.9
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
1
4
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
1Clinch1
17Ground0
Cirkunov
Jolly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
8.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cirkunov
Jolly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/8 fights
Cirkunov
Jolly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Cirkunov
Jolly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cirkunov
Jolly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
6.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CirkunovJolly
Strike Zones
Cirkunov
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedJolly
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cirkunov targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jolly absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Jolly targets the body (67% of attacks) — Cirkunov absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cirkunov
RND
Jolly
0/0R00/0
Cirkunov · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Wellington TurmanSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Jolly · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
L · KO · R1
Misha CirkunovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08