UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Saskatoon, Canada
23 Aug 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
95%
Cirkunov
5%
Jolly
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cirkunov
Cirkunov is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cirkunov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.
Cirkunov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cirkunov's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jolly has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cirkunov
Jolly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cirkunov
Jolly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.3
1.6
50.1
Performance Avg
0.0
53
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Cirkunov
Jolly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
1
4
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
1Clinch1
17Ground0
Cirkunov
Jolly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cirkunov
Jolly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/8 fights
Cirkunov
Jolly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Cirkunov
Jolly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cirkunov
Jolly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
6.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CirkunovJolly
Strike Zones
Cirkunov
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedJolly
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cirkunov targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jolly absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Jolly targets the body (67% of attacks) — Cirkunov absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cirkunov
RND
Jolly
0/0R00/0
Cirkunov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Jolly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.9WinLossTrend
Cirkunov · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Wellington TurmanRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Jolly · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
L · KO · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08