METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2023
Welterweight
VS
45%
Neal
55%
Rakhmonov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:17
★ Official Result
Shavkat RakhmonovwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:17
def. Geoff Neal · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rakhmonov
→
Actual result
Rakhmonov wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 45% vs Rakhmonov at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NealRakhmonov
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Neal
Rakhmonov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
36
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Rakhmonov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
68.8
51.7
Performance Avg
68.5
48
Quality of Victory
48
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Rakhmonov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
9.0
3.1
Style: Volume
3.1
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
2
Body
9
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance17
5Clinch18
0Ground0
Neal
Rakhmonov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.2
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
7.1
1
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Rakhmonov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Neal
Rakhmonov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Neal
Rakhmonov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
86%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Rakhmonov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.2
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
NealRakhmonov
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedRakhmonov
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (90% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (66% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 66% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Rakhmonov
0/0R00/0
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Rakhmonov · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen ThompsonSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
Geoff NealSubmission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil MagnySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02