UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2023
Welterweight
VS
42%
Neal
58%
Rakhmonov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:17
Geoff
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
16 – 8
5'11"75" reachSouthpaw35 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 56
Shavkat
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
19 – 0
Submission Hunter7-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 76

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rakhmonov

This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 42% vs Rakhmonov at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Neal throws more volume but Rakhmonov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Neal
Rakhmonov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
35
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Rakhmonov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
76.4
51.7
Performance Avg
68.5
48
Quality of Victory
48
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Rakhmonov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
64%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
2
Body
9
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance17
5Clinch18
0Ground0
Neal
Rakhmonov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Neal
Rakhmonov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Neal
Rakhmonov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Neal
Rakhmonov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
86%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Neal
Rakhmonov
Striking7.4 / 3.4Volume3.1 / 3.1Grappling1.6 / 6.1Wrestling1.1 / 4.2Submission1.3 / 7.1Pressure7.0 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.2
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Neal
Strike Zones
Rakhmonov
Neal
Attacking
18HEAD2BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD9BODY3LEGS35 absorbed
Rakhmonov
Attacking
23HEAD9BODY3LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD2BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (90% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (66% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Neal
RND
Rakhmonov
0/0R00/0

Neal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.6W5.9W5.0W6.1L6.1L5.0W7.0W6.1L7.0L5.2W3.7L3.3L2018-022019-122022-082025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Rakhmonov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.2W5.8W5.9W6.5W5.8W6.0W2020-102022-022023-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Neal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

Rakhmonov · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 6
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
Geoff NealRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil MagnyRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

News & Media

Geoff Neal · Shavkat Rakhmonov
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