UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
8 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
42%
Green
58%
Ruffy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ruffy
This is a genuine toss-up — Green at 42% vs Ruffy at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ruffy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Green throws more volume but Ruffy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Green's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green
Ruffy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Green
Ruffy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
68.7
45.9
Performance Avg
62.0
38
Quality of Victory
50
85
Momentum Score
87
Green
Ruffy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
1.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Green
Ruffy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Green
Ruffy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
88
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/52 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Green
Ruffy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
87
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Green
Ruffy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Green
Ruffy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
1.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
GreenRuffy
Strike Zones
Green
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedRuffy
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Green targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ruffy targets the head (100% of attacks) — Green absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Green
RND
Ruffy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ruffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Ruffy · Last 5
Upcoming
Michael ChandlerUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Rafael FizievRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11