UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Featherweight
VS
50%
Ortega
50%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
5'8"69" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 62
Diego
Diego Lopes
27 – 8
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 50% vs Lopes at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ortega throws more volume but Lopes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Ortega
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
61.4
53.7
Performance Avg
55.6
48
Quality of Victory
48
80
Momentum Score
69
Ortega
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
40
2
Body
10
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
31Distance41
1Clinch4
0Ground10
Ortega
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortega
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/21 fights
Chin rating based on
10/35 fights
Ortega
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
69
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Ortega
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortega
Lopes
Striking5.0 / 6.3Volume2.2 / 4.0Grappling4.3 / 2.1Wrestling3.0 / 1.5Submission5.0 / 1.7Pressure8.0 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Ortega
Strike Zones
Lopes
Ortega
Attacking
29HEAD2BODY1LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
40HEAD10BODY5LEGS55 absorbed
Lopes
Attacking
40HEAD10BODY5LEGS55 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD2BODY1LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (91% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (73% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortega
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Lopes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0106.8L5.0W6.0W5.8W5.2W5.9W7.0L6.7W7.0L2023-052024-042025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

Lopes · Last 5

Upcoming
Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Brian Ortega · Diego Lopes
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