UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Heavyweight
VS
14%
Smith
86%
Porter
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:10
BS
Braxton Smith
"The Beautiful Monster"
5 – 2
5'11"72" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 5
PP
Parker Porter
14 – 9
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 29

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Porter

Porter is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Porter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Striking split: Smith throws more volume but Porter connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Porter has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Smith
Porter
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
36+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Porter
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
4.7
28.5
0.0
Performance Avg
40.2
0
Quality of Victory
34
0
Momentum Score
45
Smith
Porter
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.6
3.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
53%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
24
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance12
0Clinch3
0Ground10
Smith
Porter
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Porter
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
22
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/7 fights
Chin rating based on
8/23 fights
Smith
Porter
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
45
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Smith
Porter
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Porter
Striking0.0 / 3.5Volume0.0 / 7.0Grappling0.0 / 1.8Wrestling0.0 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Smith
Strike Zones
Porter
Smith
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Porter
Attacking
24HEAD1BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (93% of attacks) — Porter absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Porter targets the head (96% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Porter
0/0R00/0

Porter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.8L4.6W4.5W4.5W3.3L3.1L5.0W2.3L2020-082021-082022-052023-052023-08
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Parker PorterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Porter · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Junior TafaRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · KO · R1
Braxton SmithRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Alan BaudotRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02

News & Media

Braxton Smith · Parker Porter
← Back to fights