UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Chicago, USA
25 Jul 2015
Lightweight
VS
61%
Nijem
39%
Holbrook
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nijem
Nijem holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Holbrook has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Nijem has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Nijem throws more volume but Holbrook connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nijem's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holbrook has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nijem
Holbrook
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
70"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nijem
Holbrook
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
9.5
43.4
Performance Avg
31.0
39
Quality of Victory
25
51
Momentum Score
25
Nijem
Holbrook
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
3Clinch1
3Ground1
Nijem
Holbrook
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nijem
Holbrook
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Nijem
Holbrook
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Nijem
Holbrook
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nijem
Holbrook
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
NijemHolbrook
Strike Zones
Nijem
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHolbrook
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nijem targets the head (86% of attacks) — Holbrook absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Holbrook targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nijem absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nijem
RND
Holbrook
0/0R00/0
Nijem · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Holbrook · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Nijem · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andrew HolbrookRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
James VickRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
Holbrook · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Thibault GoutiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
Joaquim SilvaRating 2.1KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07