UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Welterweight
VS
48%
Aliev
52%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SA
Sultan Aliev
15 – 3
5'11"74" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nakamura

This is a genuine toss-up — Aliev at 48% vs Nakamura at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nakamura has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Nakamura throws more volume but Aliev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Aliev
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
73"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Aliev
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.5
13.7
35.0
Performance Avg
36.2
25
Quality of Victory
36
39
Momentum Score
26
Aliev
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.8
40%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Aliev
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aliev
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Aliev
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
26
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aliev
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aliev
Nakamura
Striking1.0 / 0.7Volume9.0 / 4.7Grappling2.4 / 5.2Wrestling1.7 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure1.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Aliev
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Aliev
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aliev targets the head (86% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (83% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aliev
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0

Aliev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L4.5W5.0L4.5W2015-012016-122018-052019-04
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Aliev · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · R2
Warlley AlvesRating 5
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Bojan VelickovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Kenny RobertsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Sultan Aliev · Keita Nakamura
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