UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
32%
Northcutt
68%
Gall
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:40
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Mickey
Mickey Gall
7 – 7
Submission Hunter4-fight slide34 yrsSwitch74" reach6'2"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gall

Gall holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Northcutt has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Gall throws more volume but Northcutt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gall has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Northcutt
Gall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+74"
30+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Northcutt
Gall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
45.1
54.0
Performance Avg
47.5
40
Quality of Victory
48
89
Momentum Score
56
Northcutt
Gall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
59%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Northcutt
Gall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.1
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Northcutt
Gall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
13/14 fights
Northcutt
Gall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
56
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Northcutt
Gall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
83%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Gall
Striking4.8 / 0.9Volume5.5 / 2.3Grappling2.5 / 7.1Wrestling1.8 / 5.0Submission1.7 / 8.3Pressure5.8 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Gall
Northcutt
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Gall
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gall absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Gall targets the head (100% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Gall
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Gall · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W5.2W6.4L5.0W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L3.3L5.5L3.0L2016-022018-082021-072024-11
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Gall · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ramiz BrahimajRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Bassil HafezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Mike MalottRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Jordan WilliamsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Mickey Gall
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