UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Middleweight
VS
50%
Costa
50%
Kopylov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
6'1"72" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakStriker
CFR 55
Roman
Roman Kopylov
15 – 5
Striker34 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 50% vs Kopylov at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Costa
Kopylov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Costa
Kopylov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.3
54.3
52.9
Performance Avg
50.3
44
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
58
Costa
Kopylov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
15
16
Body
6
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
31Distance21
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Costa
Kopylov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Kopylov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
70
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Costa
Kopylov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
58
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Costa
Kopylov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
71%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Costa
Kopylov
Striking7.6 / 8.3Volume4.3 / 3.5Grappling0.9 / 0.7Wrestling0.6 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.4 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Costa
Strike Zones
Kopylov
Costa
Attacking
11HEAD16BODY6LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD6BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Kopylov
Attacking
15HEAD6BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD16BODY6LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the body (48% of attacks) — Kopylov absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Kopylov targets the head (71% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Costa
RND
Kopylov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Kopylov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.0L5.5L5.5W6.2W5.6W5.2W4.2L5.6W6.2W6.5L7.1L5.8W2019-112023-012024-022025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

Kopylov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Marco TulioRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Cesar AlmeidaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Paulo Costa · Roman Kopylov
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