UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Hamburg, Germany
22 Jul 2018
Welterweight
VS
57%
Roberts
43%
Zawada
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DR
Danny Roberts
"Hot Chocolate"
18 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw38 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
DZ
David Zawada
"Sagat"
17 – 7
Submission Hunter2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Roberts

This is a genuine toss-up — Roberts at 57% vs Zawada at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Zawada has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Roberts throws more volume but Zawada connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Roberts's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roberts
Zawada
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
38
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Roberts
Zawada
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.8
23.6
45.6
Performance Avg
40.4
43
Quality of Victory
54
45
Momentum Score
13
Roberts
Zawada
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
1
Body
4
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance8
0Clinch3
16Ground0
Roberts
Zawada
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Roberts
Zawada
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
5/24 fights
Roberts
Zawada
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
13
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Roberts
Zawada
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Roberts
Zawada
Striking5.3 / 0.4Volume4.4 / 0.4Grappling2.2 / 8.0Wrestling1.5 / 5.6Submission1.4 / 10.0Pressure5.5 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Roberts
Strike Zones
Zawada
Roberts
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY5LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Zawada
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY5LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Roberts targets the head (71% of attacks) — Zawada absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Zawada targets the head (64% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Roberts
RND
Zawada
0/0R00/0

Roberts · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W4.5W4.0L5.2W1.5L5.0W4.5W4.0L2.1L5.2W4.5W5.5L3.0L4.0L2015-122017-122019-052022-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Zawada · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L4.8L5.0W5.5L5.5L2018-072018-112019-112021-012021-09
WinLossTrend

Roberts · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Jonny ParsonsRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
W · KO · R2
Zelim ImadaevRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11

Zawada · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Sub · R1
Abubakar NurmagomedovRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Li JingliangRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Danny RobertsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07

News & Media

Danny Roberts · David Zawada
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