UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Lightweight
VS
23%
Alvarez
77%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvarez
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
66.1
52.9
Performance Avg
63.6
50
Quality of Victory
62
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
62%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
16
6
Body
3
0
Leg
13
RangeRange
27Distance27
10Clinch5
3Ground0
Alvarez
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Alvarez
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Alvarez
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
AlvarezGaethje
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07