METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Lightweight
VS
22%
Alvarez
78%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:59
★ Official Result
Eddie AlvarezwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:59
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
67.6
52.9
Performance Avg
65.5
50
Quality of Victory
63
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
6.5
5.1
Style: Volume
4.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
16
6
Body
3
0
Leg
13
RangeRange
27Distance27
10Clinch5
3Ground0
Alvarez
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Alvarez
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Alvarez
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
AlvarezGaethje
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07