UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Middleweight
VS
37%
Santos
63%
Hermansson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hermansson
Hermansson holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Santos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hermansson throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hermansson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Hermansson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
+77"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Hermansson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
53.8
54.0
Performance Avg
48.1
51
Quality of Victory
42
91
Momentum Score
97
Santos
Hermansson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
11 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
5
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance5
4Clinch0
7Ground0
Santos
Hermansson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Hermansson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/33 fights
Chin rating based on
19/34 fights
Santos
Hermansson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
97
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Hermansson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
79%
55%
11
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Hermansson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SantosHermansson
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHermansson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (79% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Hermansson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Hermansson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07