UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
12 Mar 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
74%
Jr.
26%
Roberson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jr.
Jr. is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Jr. throws more volume but Roberson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jr.'s chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Roberson has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jr.
Roberson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
74"
36
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Jr.
Roberson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
18.7
52.0
Performance Avg
38.3
48
Quality of Victory
37
77
Momentum Score
25
Jr.
Roberson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
55%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
1Clinch0
4Ground0
Jr.
Roberson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jr.
Roberson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Jr.
Roberson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
77
25
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Jr.
Roberson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jr.
Roberson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Jr.Roberson
Strike Zones
Jr.
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRoberson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jr. targets the head (75% of attacks) — Roberson absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jr.
RND
Roberson
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Roberson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Jr. · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
Roberson · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin VettoriRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11