METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Chicago, USA
25 Jul 2015
Bantamweight
VS
59%
Wineland
41%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bryan CarawaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Eddie Wineland · UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Wineland
→
Actual result
Caraway wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Wineland at 59% vs Caraway at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wineland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Caraway connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Wineland's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WinelandCaraway
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wineland
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wineland
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
20.0
45.0
Performance Avg
47.9
50
Quality of Victory
40
78
Momentum Score
82
Wineland
Caraway
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
1.1
32%
Strike Accuracy
37%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
26
5
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance24
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Wineland
Caraway
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wineland
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Wineland
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
82
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Wineland
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wineland
Caraway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
WinelandCaraway
Strike Zones
Wineland
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedCaraway
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wineland targets the head (77% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (96% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wineland
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0
Wineland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Caraway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Wineland · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
Caraway · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10