METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Bantamweight
VS
93%
Smolka
7%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:43
★ Official Result
Louis SmolkawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:43
def. Ryan MacDonald · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Smolka wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaMacDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Smolka
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
2.1
46.5
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Smolka
MacDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
2.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
34%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
20
31
Body
6
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
57Distance30
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Smolka
MacDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Smolka
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Smolka
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SmolkaMacDonald
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
59 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
59 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (53% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (67% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
MacDonald · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Louis SmolkaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03