METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Bantamweight
VS
93%
Smolka
7%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:43
★ Official Result
Louis SmolkawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:43
def. Ryan MacDonald · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Smolka wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaMacDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Smolka
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
2.1
46.5
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Smolka
MacDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
0.0
2.9
Style: Volume
0.0
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
20
31
Body
6
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
57Distance30
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Smolka
MacDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Smolka
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Smolka
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SmolkaMacDonald
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
59 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
59 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (53% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (67% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
MacDonald · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Louis SmolkaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03