UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Las Vegas, USA
5 Sept 2020
Heavyweight
VS
32%
Overeem
68%
Sakai
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 0:26
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
6'4"80" reachOrthodox46 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 18
AS
Augusto Sakai
16 – 5
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sakai

Sakai holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Overeem has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Overeem has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Overeem's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sakai has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Overeem
Sakai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
80"+
Reach
77"
46
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Overeem
Sakai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
38.9
55.0
Performance Avg
44.4
52
Quality of Victory
37
56
Momentum Score
100
Overeem
Sakai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
73%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
9 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Overeem
Sakai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Overeem
Sakai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
8
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/66 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Overeem
Sakai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
100
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R5
Overeem
Sakai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
40%
9
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Overeem
Sakai
Striking8.7 / 5.1Volume3.2 / 5.9Grappling0.6 / 1.4Wrestling0.4 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Overeem
Strike Zones
Sakai
Overeem
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Sakai
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Overeem targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sakai absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Overeem
RND
Sakai
0/0R00/0

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Sakai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5W5.2W5.4W4.5W4.0L2.6L3.2L3.3L4.8W2018-092020-052021-122023-02
WinLossTrend

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

Sakai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R5
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09

News & Media

Alistair Overeem · Augusto Sakai
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