UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Featherweight
VS
77%
Rodriguez
23%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
69"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Rodriguez
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.4
19.4
60.2
Performance Avg
36.3
51
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
20
Rodriguez
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.8
48%
Strike Accuracy
36%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
2
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch0
6Ground9
Rodriguez
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Rodriguez
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
40%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
RodriguezRosa
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedRosa
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (64% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (87% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02