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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Las Vegas, USA
25 Jun 2022
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Kelleher
58%
Bautista
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:27
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
5'6"66" reachSwitch39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
Well-Rounded33 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 57
★ Official Result
Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR1 · 2:27
def. Brian Kelleher · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bautista
→
Actual result
Bautista wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 42% vs Bautista at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
KelleherBautista
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelleher
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Kelleher
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
56.7
44.5
Performance Avg
54.6
43
Quality of Victory
39
61
Momentum Score
73
Kelleher
Bautista
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
2.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Kelleher
Bautista
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Kelleher
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
73
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
46%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelleher
Bautista
Striking3.4 / 2.5Volume3.9 / 5.9Grappling3.9 / 4.2Wrestling2.7 / 3.0Submission3.8 / 3.6Pressure5.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Kelleher
Strike Zones
Bautista
Kelleher
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Bautista
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelleher
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0

Kelleher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.3L5.5W4.5W4.0L2.4L5.8W5.2W5.5L5.0W6.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L2.6L2.6L1.7L2017-062018-122021-022023-122024-07
WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Brian Kelleher · Mario Bautista
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