METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Las Vegas, USA
25 Jun 2022
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Kelleher
58%
Bautista
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:27
★ Official Result
Mario BautistawinsSubmissionR1 · 2:27
def. Brian Kelleher · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bautista
→
Actual result
Bautista wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 42% vs Bautista at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KelleherBautista
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelleher
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+69"
40
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Kelleher
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
56.3
44.5
Performance Avg
54.5
43
Quality of Victory
38
61
Momentum Score
73
Kelleher
Bautista
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
5.3
3.9
Style: Volume
6.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Kelleher
Bautista
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
3
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelleher
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Kelleher
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
73
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelleher
Bautista
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
KelleherBautista
Strike Zones
Kelleher
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBautista
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelleher
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Bautista · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenDecision
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10