UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Stockholm, Sweden
4 Oct 2014
Featherweight
VS
42%
Siver
58%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Dennis Siver
23 – 11
5'6"70" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
CR
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rosa

This is a genuine toss-up — Siver at 42% vs Rosa at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Siver throws more volume but Rosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Siver's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rosa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Siver
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
47
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Siver
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
19.4
46.1
Performance Avg
36.3
37
Quality of Victory
35
43
Momentum Score
20
Siver
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.8
34%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
1
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance3
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Siver
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Siver
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Siver
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Siver
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Siver
Rosa
Striking3.7 / 0.8Volume5.9 / 5.6Grappling2.7 / 4.6Wrestling1.9 / 3.3Submission1.7 / 4.0Pressure4.7 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Siver
Strike Zones
Rosa
Siver
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Rosa
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Siver targets the head (80% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (33% of attacks) — Siver absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Siver
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0

Siver · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5L4.5W4.1L5.5L4.5W2007-042009-062011-022013-072017-06
WinLossTrend

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W7.1L4.5W4.0L5.0W6.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.8L5.5L6.3L2014-102017-042021-022022-07
WinLossTrend

Siver · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Tatsuya KawajiriRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
Upcoming
Manvel Gamburyan
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12

Rosa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02

News & Media

Dennis Siver · Charles Rosa
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