UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
Houston, USA
8 Oct 2011
Lightweight
VS
29%
Pettis
71%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pettis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pettis
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
45.0
52.6
Performance Avg
41.1
51
Quality of Victory
40
72
Momentum Score
76
Pettis
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
0
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Pettis
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Pettis
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
76
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Pettis
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
47%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
PettisStephens
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedStephens
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10