METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fortaleza, Brazil
11 Mar 2017
Welterweight
VS
45%
Oliveira
55%
Means
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:38
★ Official Result
Alex OliveirawinsSubmissionR2 · 2:38
def. Tim Means · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Means
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 45% vs Means at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Means throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraMeans
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
36.5
46.5
Performance Avg
45.2
43
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
40
Oliveira
Means
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
3Clinch3
3Ground2
Oliveira
Means
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Oliveira
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
53%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Means
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
OliveiraMeans
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMeans
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Means absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Means · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Means · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10