UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Oct 2020
Welterweight
VS
37%
Condit
63%
McGee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGee
McGee holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Condit has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Condit has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Condit connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGee has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Condit
McGee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
McGee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
38.7
47.8
Performance Avg
40.1
48
Quality of Victory
36
20
Momentum Score
50
Condit
McGee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
40%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
3
6
Body
11
9
Leg
13
RangeRange
42Distance27
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Condit
McGee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
McGee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Condit
McGee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
50
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Condit
McGee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
27%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
McGee
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
ConditMcGee
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedMcGee
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (65% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯McGee targets the legs (48% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
McGee
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Condit · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Jeremiah WellsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06