METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Bantamweight
VS
69%
Gravely
31%
Birchak
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:31
★ Official Result
Tony GravelywinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:31
def. Anthony Birchak · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gravely
→
Actual result
Gravely wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Gravely holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Birchak has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Birchak throws more volume but Gravely connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gravely's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Birchak has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GravelyBirchak
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gravely
Birchak
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gravely
Birchak
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.2
14.8
44.8
Performance Avg
38.8
41
Quality of Victory
43
35
Momentum Score
53
Gravely
Birchak
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
2.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
34%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
2
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance2
0Clinch2
2Ground0
Gravely
Birchak
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gravely
Birchak
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
32
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/24 fights
Gravely
Birchak
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Gravely
Birchak
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gravely
Birchak
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
GravelyBirchak
Strike Zones
Gravely
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedBirchak
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gravely targets the head (57% of attacks) — Birchak absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Birchak targets the body (50% of attacks) — Gravely absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gravely
RND
Birchak
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gravely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Birchak · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Gravely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Javid BasharatRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Johnny MunozRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Saimon OliveiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
L · KO · R2
Nate ManessRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
Birchak · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tony GravelyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Gustavo LopezRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Dileno LopesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Thomas AlmeidaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06