UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno
Mexico City, Mexico
5 Aug 2017
Flyweight
VS
21%
Pettis
79%
Moreno
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
SP
Sergio Pettis
18 – 5
5'6"69" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Brandon
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moreno

Moreno is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Striking split: Pettis throws more volume but Moreno connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Pettis's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pettis
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"
Reach
+70"
32
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.2
52.8
40.7
Performance Avg
52.5
25
Quality of Victory
47
55
Momentum Score
54
Pettis
Moreno
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
6
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground2
Pettis
Moreno
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
20/33 fights
Pettis
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
54
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Pettis
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pettis
Moreno
Striking1.3 / 3.0Volume9.3 / 4.9Grappling2.4 / 3.3Wrestling1.7 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 2.7Pressure1.9 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
1.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Pettis
Strike Zones
Moreno
Pettis
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Moreno
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (85% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (86% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pettis
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.4W7.0L4.5W5.5L6.7L4.7W2013-112015-032017-082018-122019-09
WinLossTrend

Moreno · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L6.8L5.4W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.6L6.1W5.3W6.8L6.3L5.8W5.1W4.5L6.2L2016-102019-122022-072025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

Moreno · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

News & Media

Sergio Pettis · Brandon Moreno
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