UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
60%
Spann
40%
Clark
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spann
Spann holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Clark has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spann has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Spann throws more volume but Clark connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Spann's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Clark has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spann
Clark
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
75"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spann
Clark
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
28.7
54.8
Performance Avg
35.7
50
Quality of Victory
28
10
Momentum Score
43
Spann
Clark
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
0
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
8Clinch2
0Ground0
Spann
Clark
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spann
Clark
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/35 fights
Chin rating based on
17/23 fights
Spann
Clark
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Spann
Clark
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
13%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spann
Clark
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
SpannClark
Strike Zones
Spann
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedClark
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Clark absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Clark targets the head (43% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spann
RND
Clark
0/0R00/0
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Clark · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Clark · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 4Submission
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Da Woon JungRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · KO · R3
William KnightRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04