UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Oct 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Prochazka
44%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prochazka
This is a genuine toss-up — Prochazka at 56% vs Jr. at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prochazka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Prochazka's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jr. has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Prochazka
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
76"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Prochazka
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
53.7
60.9
Performance Avg
52.0
57
Quality of Victory
48
98
Momentum Score
77
Prochazka
Jr.
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.4
64%
Strike Accuracy
42%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
25
14
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
37Distance23
10Clinch4
0Ground0
Prochazka
Jr.
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Prochazka
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/38 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Prochazka
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
77
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Prochazka
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Prochazka
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
ProchazkaJr.
Strike Zones
Prochazka
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedJr.
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Prochazka targets the head (64% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (93% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Prochazka
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Prochazka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Prochazka · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R3
Jamahal HillRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Jr. · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08