UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Lightweight
VS
41%
Robinson
59%
Gurgel
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Alvin Robinson
15 – 9
5'9"68" reachSouthpaw43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 9
JG
Jorge Gurgel
14 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide49 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gurgel

This is a genuine toss-up — Robinson at 41% vs Gurgel at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Gurgel throws more volume but Robinson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Robinson's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Robinson
Gurgel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+69"
43+
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Robinson
Gurgel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.8
12.5
25.0
Performance Avg
32.1
25
Quality of Victory
25
22
Momentum Score
45
Robinson
Gurgel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
28%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
16Ground0
Robinson
Gurgel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Robinson
Gurgel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Robinson
Gurgel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Robinson
Gurgel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Robinson
Gurgel
Striking0.5 / 0.9Volume8.5 / 8.9Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Robinson
Strike Zones
Gurgel
Robinson
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Gurgel
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Robinson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gurgel absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Robinson
RND
Gurgel
0/0R00/0

Robinson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.9
0101.5L4.5W1.5L4.0L2007-072007-102008-012008-11
WinLossTrend

Gurgel · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L5.5L2006-062007-072008-032008-11
WinLossTrend

Robinson · Last 4

L · Sub · R3
Mark BocekRating 4
Submission
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R1
Nate DiazRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01
W · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · KO · R1
Kenny FlorianRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07

Gurgel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R3
Cole MillerRating 4
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
John HalversonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Alvin RobinsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Diego SaraivaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07

News & Media

Alvin Robinson · Jorge Gurgel
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