UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Bantamweight
VS
95%
Quinonez
5%
Moutinho
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Quinonez
Quinonez is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Quinonez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Moutinho throws more volume but Quinonez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moutinho has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Quinonez
Moutinho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Quinonez
Moutinho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.0
2.6
45.5
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
66
Momentum Score
0
Quinonez
Moutinho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
32%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Quinonez
Moutinho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Quinonez
Moutinho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
32
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/24 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Quinonez
Moutinho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Quinonez
Moutinho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Quinonez
Moutinho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
QuinonezMoutinho
Strike Zones
Quinonez
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMoutinho
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Quinonez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Moutinho absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Moutinho targets the head (80% of attacks) — Quinonez absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Quinonez
RND
Moutinho
0/0R00/0
Quinonez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Moutinho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Quinonez · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Kris MoutinhoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Sub · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 4.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Sub · R1
Kyung Ho KangRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Khalid TahaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
Moutinho · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Cristian QuinonezRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Malcolm WellmakerRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
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