METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Welterweight
VS
76%
Alves
24%
Aliev
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Warlley AlveswinsR2 · 5:00
def. Sultan Aliev · UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alves
→
Actual result
Alves wins
Pre-fight analysis
Alves is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesAliev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Aliev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Aliev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
12.5
49.3
Performance Avg
35.0
49
Quality of Victory
25
30
Momentum Score
39
Alves
Aliev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
1.5
3.0
Style: Volume
9.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Alves
Aliev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Aliev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Alves
Aliev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Alves
Aliev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Aliev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
AlvesAliev
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedAliev
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aliev targets the head (75% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Aliev
0/0R00/0
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovDecision
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L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovKO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyDecision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Aliev · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · R2
Warlley AlvesUFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Bojan VelickovicDecision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Kenny RobertsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01