UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Welterweight
VS
76%
Alves
24%
Aliev
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alves
Alves is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alves
Aliev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Aliev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
12.5
49.3
Performance Avg
35.0
49
Quality of Victory
25
30
Momentum Score
39
Alves
Aliev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Alves
Aliev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Aliev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Alves
Aliev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Alves
Aliev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Aliev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
AlvesAliev
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedAliev
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aliev targets the head (75% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Aliev
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Aliev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Aliev · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · R2
Warlley AlvesRating 5UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Bojan VelickovicRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Kenny RobertsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01