★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Bantamweight
VS
36%
Cruz
64%
Garbrandt
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garbrandt
Garbrandt holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Cruz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garbrandt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cruz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Garbrandt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cruz
Garbrandt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
68"+
Reach
65"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cruz
Garbrandt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
56.6
50.3
Performance Avg
51.6
37
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
97
Cruz
Garbrandt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
1
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Cruz
Garbrandt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cruz
Garbrandt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/28 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Cruz
Garbrandt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
97
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Cruz
Garbrandt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cruz
Garbrandt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
8.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
CruzGarbrandt
Strike Zones
Cruz
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedGarbrandt
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cruz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (75% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cruz
RND
Garbrandt
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Cruz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Cruz · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Marlon VeraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12