UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Zagreb, Croatia
10 Apr 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
24%
Pokrajac
76%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blachowicz
Blachowicz is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Blachowicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pokrajac's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+78"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
46.4
43.2
Performance Avg
53.0
50
Quality of Victory
48
33
Momentum Score
20
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
25
0
Body
8
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch3
2Ground26
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/41 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pokrajac
Blachowicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
PokrajacBlachowicz
Strike Zones
Pokrajac
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedBlachowicz
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pokrajac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (76% of attacks) — Pokrajac absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pokrajac
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0
Pokrajac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pokrajac · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
Rafael CavalcanteRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
Ryan JimmoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
Upcoming
Joey BeltranUFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05