UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Tampa, USA
7 Feb 2009
Middleweight
VS
84%
Catone
16%
Downey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:15
NC
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
10 – 4
6'0"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
DD
Derek Downey
11 – 4
Well-Rounded46 yrsOrthodox6'1"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Catone

Catone is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Catone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.

Striking split: Catone throws more volume but Downey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Catone
Downey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
44+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Catone
Downey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
2.5
38.7
Performance Avg
0.0
31
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Catone
Downey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
0.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
100%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
3Clinch1
2Ground0
Catone
Downey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Catone
Downey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/14 fights
Chin rating based on
1/15 fights
Catone
Downey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Catone
Downey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Catone
Downey
Striking1.0 / 0.0Volume7.0 / 0.0Grappling3.8 / 0.0Wrestling2.7 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Catone
Strike Zones
Downey
Catone
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Downey
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Catone targets the head (100% of attacks) — Downey absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Downey targets the body (100% of attacks) — Catone absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Catone
RND
Downey
0/0R00/0

Catone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.2W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W2009-022009-082011-032012-122014-02
WinLossTrend

Catone · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tom WatsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Sub · R2
TJ WaldburgerRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ForbesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01

Downey · Last 1

L · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02

News & Media

Nick Catone · Derek Downey
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