METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fort Campbell, USA
6 Nov 2013
Middleweight
VS
54%
Kennedy
46%
Natal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
★ Official Result
Tim KennedywinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:40
def. Rafael Natal · UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kennedy
→
Actual result
Kennedy wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kennedy at 54% vs Natal at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Kennedy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Kennedy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KennedyNatal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kennedy
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+77"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kennedy
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
15.2
48.0
Performance Avg
40.5
40
Quality of Victory
30
70
Momentum Score
81
Kennedy
Natal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
3.2
6.5
Style: Volume
7.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
1
Body
2
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
9Distance13
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Kennedy
Natal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kennedy
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Kennedy
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kennedy
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
22%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kennedy
Natal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
KennedyNatal
Strike Zones
Kennedy
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedNatal
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kennedy targets the head (54% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Kennedy absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kennedy
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kennedy · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kelvin GastelumKO/TKO
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroKO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R5
Michael BispingDecision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Roger GracieDecision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschKO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerDecision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallDecision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05