METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fort Campbell, USA
6 Nov 2013
Middleweight
VS
54%
Kennedy
46%
Natal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
★ Official Result
Tim KennedywinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:40
def. Rafael Natal · UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kennedy
→
Actual result
Kennedy wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kennedy at 54% vs Natal at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Kennedy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kennedy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KennedyNatal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kennedy
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+77"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kennedy
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
15.2
48.0
Performance Avg
40.5
40
Quality of Victory
30
70
Momentum Score
81
Kennedy
Natal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
1
Body
2
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
9Distance13
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Kennedy
Natal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kennedy
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Kennedy
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kennedy
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
22%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kennedy
Natal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
KennedyNatal
Strike Zones
Kennedy
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedNatal
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kennedy targets the head (54% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Kennedy absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kennedy
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kennedy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kennedy · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Roger GracieRating 4.5Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05