UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fort Campbell, USA
6 Nov 2013
Middleweight
VS
54%
Kennedy
46%
Natal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
TK
Tim Kennedy
18 – 6
5'11"74" reachOrthodox46 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kennedy

This is a genuine toss-up — Kennedy at 54% vs Natal at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kennedy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kennedy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kennedy
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+77"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kennedy
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
15.2
48.0
Performance Avg
40.5
40
Quality of Victory
30
70
Momentum Score
81
Kennedy
Natal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
1
Body
2
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
9Distance13
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Kennedy
Natal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kennedy
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Kennedy
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kennedy
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
22%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kennedy
Natal
Striking4.5 / 2.2Volume6.5 / 7.3Grappling1.6 / 2.8Wrestling1.1 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure4.1 / 3.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Kennedy
Strike Zones
Natal
Kennedy
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY5LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 absorbed
Natal
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY5LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kennedy targets the head (54% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Kennedy absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kennedy
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Kennedy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.0L4.3L2013-072013-112014-042014-092016-12
WinLossTrend

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Kennedy · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Roger GracieRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

News & Media

Tim Kennedy · Rafael Natal
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