UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
13 Feb 2021
Middleweight
VS
64%
Gastelum
36%
Heinisch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 41
IH
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
14 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gastelum

Gastelum holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Heinisch has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Heinisch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum
Heinisch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Heinisch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
23.7
47.4
Performance Avg
39.1
42
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
50
Gastelum
Heinisch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
4
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
5Clinch0
2Ground1
Gastelum
Heinisch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Heinisch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Gastelum
Heinisch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Heinisch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gastelum
Heinisch
Striking3.3 / 4.2Volume6.3 / 6.2Grappling2.7 / 1.6Wrestling1.9 / 1.1Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Gastelum
Strike Zones
Heinisch
Gastelum
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Heinisch
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (69% of attacks) — Heinisch absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Heinisch targets the head (56% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gastelum
RND
Heinisch
0/0R00/0

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Heinisch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.8L5.5L6.1W5.8L4.2L2018-112019-082020-062021-07
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

Heinisch · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · 2021-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

News & Media

Kelvin Gastelum · Ian Heinisch
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