METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
13 Feb 2021
Middleweight
VS
73%
Gastelum
27%
Heinisch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ian Heinisch · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumHeinisch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Heinisch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Heinisch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
15.1
47.4
Performance Avg
39.1
42
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
50
Gastelum
Heinisch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
3.6
6.3
Style: Volume
6.2
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
4
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
5Clinch0
2Ground1
Gastelum
Heinisch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gastelum
Heinisch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Gastelum
Heinisch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Heinisch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Heinisch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
GastelumHeinisch
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedHeinisch
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (69% of attacks) — Heinisch absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Heinisch targets the head (56% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Heinisch
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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Heinisch · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · 2021-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonDecision
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