METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
13 Feb 2021
Middleweight
VS
64%
Gastelum
36%
Heinisch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ian Heinisch · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Heinisch has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Heinisch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumHeinisch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Heinisch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Heinisch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
23.7
47.4
Performance Avg
39.1
42
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
50
Gastelum
Heinisch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
4
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
5Clinch0
2Ground1
Gastelum
Heinisch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Heinisch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Gastelum
Heinisch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Heinisch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Heinisch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
GastelumHeinisch
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedHeinisch
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (69% of attacks) — Heinisch absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Heinisch targets the head (56% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Heinisch
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Heinisch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Heinisch · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · 2021-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08