UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Flyweight
VS
76%
Elliott
24%
Espinosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tim
Tim Elliott
22 – 14
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
JE
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elliott

Elliott is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Elliott throws more volume but Espinosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elliott
Espinosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Espinosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
11.5
37.9
Performance Avg
28.3
33
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
45
Elliott
Espinosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
2Clinch1
10Ground3
Elliott
Espinosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elliott
Espinosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/36 fights
Chin rating based on
6/24 fights
Elliott
Espinosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Elliott
Espinosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elliott
Espinosa
Striking0.9 / 0.7Volume6.5 / 8.7Grappling4.1 / 2.4Wrestling2.9 / 1.7Submission3.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Elliott
Strike Zones
Espinosa
Elliott
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Espinosa
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (75% of attacks) — Espinosa absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Espinosa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elliott
RND
Espinosa
0/0R00/0

Elliott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.2W2.6L5.5L3.5L4.5W4.5W5.7L5.6W4.6W5.4L5.6W5.2W6.1L2012-052016-122020-052023-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Espinosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W1.7L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.6L2019-032019-082020-012020-062020-092021-03
WinLossTrend

Elliott · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

Espinosa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Mark De La RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

News & Media

Tim Elliott · Jordan Espinosa
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