METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Flyweight
VS
76%
Elliott
24%
Espinosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tim ElliottwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jordan Espinosa · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elliott
→
Actual result
Elliott wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elliott is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElliottEspinosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elliott
Espinosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Espinosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.9
11.5
38.0
Performance Avg
28.3
33
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
45
Elliott
Espinosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
1.0
6.5
Style: Volume
8.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
2Clinch1
10Ground3
Elliott
Espinosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elliott
Espinosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/36 fights
Chin rating based on
6/24 fights
Elliott
Espinosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Elliott
Espinosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elliott
Espinosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
ElliottEspinosa
Strike Zones
Elliott
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedEspinosa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (75% of attacks) — Espinosa absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Espinosa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elliott
RND
Espinosa
0/0R00/0
Elliott · Last 5
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